Nord Stream 2 state of play and consequences for Ukraine gas transit

The NS2 project is at crossroads now that German energy regulator BNetzA has suspended the certification pending the re-registration of the company as a legal entity in Germany. The agency is conducting consultations with Poland and Ukraine on the pipeline’s effect on these countries in terms of their economies, on Germany’s and the EU’s security of supply, and thinking of how to apply the legal concept of Energy Solidarity. The new coalition government will be less understanding toward this project than the outgoing Merkel government. On the longer term beyond 2024 however, the comparative economics of the Ukrainian route will probably determine whether traders are willing to purchase gas at the Russian-Ukrainian border, barring or worsening of the geopolitical or military situation of course.